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From:
James Fischer <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Date:
Sun, 9 Feb 2003 21:21:10 -0500
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Bob said:

> Many packers have long hid the huge amount of Chinese honey coming into the
> U.S. from beekeepers AND the general public.

> It is my OPINION that the time has come for the FDA to take off the *kid
> gloves* with a few packers.

Bob knows much more than I do about the bulk honey business than I do,
so his statement, combined with similar statements made in the most
recent American Bee Journal, prompted me to idly push a few buttons
while waiting for some tea to brew.  The data is, ummm, surprising.

> Viet Nam must have had the "mother of all honey crops".

But it's not just Vietnam.

There are a number of countries that shipped little or no honey to the USA
in 1999 or 2000, but shipped significantly increased amounts to the USA in
2001 and/or 2002.  (The complete list for all countries that shipped honey to
the USA is appended at the end of this message in comma-delimited format,
suitable for pasting into your favorite spreadsheet program.)

What bothers me is that while I could find, grab, crunch, and come to the
obvious conclusion about the data using a mere laptop in the time it takes
water to boil, customs apparently can't (or won't) do such basic "sanity checks"
against their own database at port of entry.

The "interesting" countries are listed below.  I don't think it takes much
imagination to conclude that something funny was (and is) going on
right under the noses of the customs service.

Here's the ranking of eyebrow raisers, by percentage increase over 1999 imports.
These percentages are NOT typos, and there are no decimal points in any of them.

CHILE           2001 US imports were 4554% of 1999
                2002 US imports were 17601% of 1999

UKRAINE 2000 US imports were 1149% of 1999
                2001 US imports were 0
                2002 US imports were 8019% of 1999

INDIA           2001 US imports were 75% of 1999
                2002 US imports were 7834% of 1999

SPAIN           2001 US imports were 1519% of 1999
                2002 US imports were 7650% of 1999

URUGUAY        2001 US imports were 1916% of 1999
                    2002 US imports were 6531% of 1999

TURKEY  2001 US imports were 569% of 1999
                2002 US imports were 1608% of 1999

VIETNAM 2001 US imports were 416% of 1999
                2002 US imports were 1385% of 1999

While I am not inclined to see a gunman behind every grassy knoll,
I am highly skeptical about increases of over 500% from anywhere.

Below is a list of less clear-cut, and generally small-time,
but still eyebrow-raising cases:

MALAYSIA        Nothing in 1999-2001
                $1,105,750 (US dollars) in 2002

GUATEMALA       Nothing in 1999-2001
                $229,230 in 2002

PERU            Nothing in 1999-2001
                $166,552 in 2002

BURMA           Nothing in 1999-2001
                $92,625 in 2002

MOLDOVA Nothing in 1999-2001
                $71,892 in 2002

BAHAMAS Nothing in 1999-2001
                $16,799 in 2002

NEPAL           Nothing in 1999
                $10,430 in 2000
                Nothing in 2001-2002

COLOMBIA        Nothing in 1999-2000
                $7,305 in 2001
                Nothing in 2002

EGYPT           Nothing in 1999-2000
                $3,300 in 2001
                Nothing in 2002

LATVIA          Nothing in 1999-2001
                $2,765 in 2002


Below is the complete honey import dollar-value data from US Customs
for 1999 through 2002 Q3 (2002 Q4 data is not yet available)
in comma-delimited format.

I got all of this data at http://dataweb.usitc.gov/
It is all "public information".
I presume that it is fairly accurate and complete.

                jim

============================================
== If You Cut Here, You May Break Your Monitor Screen ==
============================================

EXPORTING,US $,US $,US $,US $,Delta %,Delta %,Delta %
COUNTRY,1999,2000,2001,2002 Q1-3,2000,2001,2002
,,,,,,,
Argentina,40777093,42848930,18977557,3291944,105%,47%,8%
Australia,535861,175210,564397,2939104,33%,105%,548%
Austria,118349,110678,88501,90795,94%,75%,77%
BAHAMAS,0,0,0,16799,,,
Brazil,,170723,172454,3249661,,,
Bulgaria,8890,40348,63667,70673,454%,716%,795%
BURMA,0,0,0,92625,,,
Canada,17077133,17573902,17662151,27469500,103%,103%,161%
CHILE,21826,0,994042,3841570,0%,4554%,17601%
China,21132756,22328252,15684355,6800624,106%,74%,32%
COLOMBIA,0,0,7305,0,,,
Croatia,12222,0,0,9177,0%,0%,75%
Czech Republic,,10663,56701,60764,,,
Denmark,0,0,16488,88727,,,
Dominican Rep,60667,121280,229965,87286,200%,379%,144%
EGYPT,0,0,3300,0,,,
El Salvador,2082,0,0,0,0%,0%,0%
France,223460,325416,215638,186119,146%,96%,83%
Germany,255445,224592,412645,594167,88%,162%,233%
Greece,235095,175378,250418,224966,75%,107%,96%
GUATEMALA,0,0,0,229230,,,
Hong Kong,54449,18691,14727,184364,34%,27%,339%
Hungary,100437,191849,832846,335904,191%,829%,334%
INDIA,35300,0,26520,2765483,0%,75%,7834%
Israel,45712,15078,20830,46343,33%,46%,101%
Italy,98399,171776,145303,253117,175%,148%,257%
Korea,11240,0,0,0,0%,0%,0%
LATVIA,0,0,0,2765,,,
Lebanon,3000,0,2175,3600,0%,73%,120%
MALAYSIA,0,0,0,1105750,,,
Mexico,3730216,2416721,5059815,13298257,65%,136%,357%
MOLDOVA,0,0,0,71892,,,
NEPAL,0,10430,0,0,,,
Netherlands,0,3271,2809,0,,,
New Zealand,185580,254163,306879,135626,137%,165%,73%
Nicaragua,46328,30294,22816,0,65%,49%,0%
Pakistan,0,0,3420,25213,,,
PERU,0,0,0,166552,,,
Philippines,,2457,3350,0,,,
Poland,16398,52147,74335,47409,318%,453%,289%
Portugal,10425,16304,24052,8436,156%,231%,81%
Romania,0,0,42314,163560,,,
Russia,47124,32877,85958,45087,70%,182%,96%
Saudi Arabia,0,3296,0,0,,,
Slovakia,0,0,26355,0,,,
South Africa,2130,8151,0,4305,383%,0%,202%
SPAIN,5605,4208,85138,428772,75%,1519%,7650%
Sweden,0,3113,0,2595,,,
Switzerland,225826,298857,241467,320994,132%,107%,142%
Taiwan,68156,105367,90010,83841,155%,132%,123%
Thailand,0,124604,1431255,5230683,,,
TURKEY,19265,24348,109628,309776,126%,569%,1608%
UKRAINE,2180,25041,0,174807,1149%,0%,8019%
United Kingdom,120669,123853,64886,27772,103%,54%,23%
URUGUAY,136394,43821,2613352,8907478,32%,1916%,6531%
VIETNAM,1163307,1406344,4843437,16111808,121%,416%,1385%
Zambia,0,0,23479,0,,,

===============
== End Of Dump  ==
===============

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