At least one part of Bill's question was addressed by Cam Lay years ago.  In the spring, as colony's are getting going again, the ratios of foragers, nurse bees, brood tend to be such that at first, most spare bees have to forage to keep up with the rapidly expanding brood nest (# adult bees to brood bees).  The bottom line, the colony can't spare many bees to be guard bees.  As the population builds, the ratios change.  By peak size, the numbers of adult bees to brood bees is higher, even though there is also likely to be the largest amount of brood in the colony.  


My interpretation, for packages or over-wintered colonies starting up in the spring (at least in our northern state), the colony just can't spare many bees for guard duty - keeping the brood fed and warm it the priority.





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