>That said, I can't recall anyone at USDA or Bee-Informed ever saying a word
about statistics.  There's so many different methods, it is best to show
one's work.

There were no statistics of probability estimates involved.  The team uses
a simple arithmetic formula.  However, I found that the formula used gave
what I considered to be a misleading representation for loss rate for
almond pollinators (such as myself) who split hives immediately after
almonds.  The team was unwilling to adjust the formula to accommodate.

I agree with Pete that historical rates of winter loss frequently were
quite high, and very dependent upon the previous summer's bloom, the
severity of the winter, and whatever epidemics were going around at the
time.

I also agree that colony health today is challenged by the varroa/virus
complex, Nosema ceranae, inbreeding, and loss of forage.  It is more
difficult to keep colonies healthy these days.

However, prices paid for our products have risen disproportionately.
Let's look at the returns for Calif beekeepers before and after varroa.
Let's assume that our income for a colony was based upon an almond
pollination rental, a sale of 1 nuc per hive, and a 40-lb honey crop.
I started pollinating almonds at $8/hive rental, working up to around $40
prior to varroa.
Nucs sold for about $29 for many years, and honey wholesaled for about 50
cents/lb.

My income per colony, under ideal circumstances would be $89.

Today, I get roughly $180 for almonds, $125 per nuc, and $2 for honey, so
my income for the same colony would be $385.

Sure, fuel and feed costs have gone up somewhat, but I'm getting nearly a
4.5x increase in return per colony.

Before varroa, my goal would be to take 2 out of 3 of my July hive count to
almonds the next February.  Today, I still use the same figure.  One could
call that a 33% loss (although few of those colonies actually die), and it
has been relatively consistent for decades.

Although a number of beekeepers today are suffering from financial
problems, as best I can tell, a greater number are experiencing financial
success, expanding their operations, and upgrading their trucks, etc.

I've confirmed the above with a major supplier.  And last season, the
backorder lag for preassembled frames was over a month, despite the
assembly lines going 24/7, producing tens of thousands every day.  Despite
all the doom and gloom, in truth, beekeeping as a business is expanding in
the U.S.

That is not to say that in certain areas, loss of forage (e.g., the
Dakotas), drought (Calif), and pesticides (a number of agricultural areas)
are not major issues.  Some operators in those specific areas are having
trouble staying in the black.

Much of our industry has been riding on the coattails of the almond
industry, which unfortunately is starting to really feel the effects of
Calif's drought.  But growers are still planting trees at a greater rate
than they are pulling them--just in different areas.

 --
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

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