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I am currently employed as an educational designer at at the National Center for Atmospheric 
Research in Boulder, CO.  Since your interview with an NCAR applied mathematician 13 years 
ago, Lisa, our global coupled climate models have improved greatly and confidence in their 
reliability as a prediction tool is extremely strong within the scientific community.  (Just think 
of the advancements in computing power and resolution capabilities over the past 13 years.  
Can you remember your computer or the internet from 1992?  Today's fastest super 
computers can do approximately 80 trillion calculations per second at peak speed.)  There 
are still uncertainities and certain variables missing from climate models, but a great deal of 
research is going on around the globe to address these uncertainities -- clouds' and 
aerosols' for example are not well represented.  Today's models clearly show that the Earth 
would actually be cooling during this period if it were not for human's GHG emissions.  It is 
only when models add in anthropogenic factors along with natural climate forcings -- 
increasing greenhouse gases due to fossil fuel burning, methane, etc -- that we see a 
warming in the models.  Also, scientists have recently done what is known as a "Commitment 
Run" for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's climate assessment report due out 
in 2007.   In a commitment model run, the model predicts warming based on the change in 
the composition of the atmosphere that has ALREADY TAKEN PLACE and assumes that we will 
completely halt all future emissions (of course, we are continuing to increase our emissions).  
The commitment run clearly shows that even if we stopped emitting all GHG NOW, we would 
still continue to warm and oceans would continue to rise significantly based on OUR PAST 
emissions.  No doubt, it is time for action and leadership on this issue on all levels -- 
globally, nationally, regionally, and individually.

I recently interviewed 10 of NCAR's leading scientists and produced a 26 minute DVD from 
roughly five hours of tape for our climate exhibit floor.  The DVD will be available from the 
NCAR store later this year should you be interested. Feel free to call me or email me with any 
questions you might have about it -- 303.497-1152.

Also, thanks to whomever began this discussion thread.  I agree with many of you that this is 
a critical issue.  Personally, I believe it will be the dominating issue and problem of the 21st 
century.

Teri Eastburn
NCAR Educational Designer
1850 Table Mesa Drive
Boulder, CO  80304
303.497.1152


 -- based----- Original Message -----
From: Lisa Jo Rudy <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Monday, September 12, 2005 7:14 am
Subject: science and global warming

> ISEN-ASTC-L is a service of the Association of Science-Technology 
> CentersIncorporated, a worldwide network of science museums and 
> related institutions.
> *****************************************************************************
> 
> at around the same time that Global Warming the exhibit was put 
> together, I 
> was assigned an article by the Society for Industrial and Applied 
> Mathematicians on the topic of massively parallel data processing 
> as it applied to modeling 
> climate change.  I interviewed a number of applied mathematicians, 
> including 
> one at NCAR in Colorado, etc.  At that time (about 12-13 years ago) 
> there was 
> in fact a great deal of disagreement within the scientific 
> community as to the 
> validity of the global warming theory.  In fact, several of the 
> mathematicians I interviewed agreed that, since an actual model of 
> global climate change 
> was then virtually impossible to create, it would be a LONG time 
> before "proof" 
> of climate change could be presented.
> 
> None seemed absolutely sure that climate change was a reality.
> 
> Lisa
> 
> 
> Lisa Jo Rudy, Writer/Consultant
> 625 Chelten Hills Drive
> Elkins Park, PA 19027
> www.lisarudy.com
> 215-635-9735
> 
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