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Subject:
From:
Teresa Eastburn <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Informal Science Education Network <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Tue, 29 Nov 2005 17:22:27 -0700
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ISEN-ASTC-L is a service of the Association of Science-Technology Centers
Incorporated, a worldwide network of science museums and related institutions.
*****************************************************************************

In regard to curricula materials on climate change: Yes, there are three 
modules at the National Center for Atmospheric Research to compliment 
their Climate Discovery exhibit.  You can find the materials at 
www.eo.ucar.edu/educators/ClimateDiscovery.  The three modules, designed 
for middle school students, are on the Sun-Earth connection, 
paleoclimatology, and climate present. (Climate future is in the works. 
Stay tuned.) There is also curriculum (currently in draft form but will 
be in final form by mid December) at 
www.atd.ucar.edu/apol/biocomplexity.  The module at this site is 
entitled Carbon, Climate, and Technology and is designed primarily for 
high school students and also physics or laser optics courses.  Much was 
designed by two educators who worked with scientists over the past three 
summers on new technology to measure carbon-12 and carbon-13.  The site 
also contains numerous informal video clips of scientists involved with 
the project answering climate change questions that the teachers had.
There is a lot out there on climate change.  I know Northwestern 
University has a terrific module and I believe the EPA &  Center for 
Concerned Scientist do as well.  Do a search at DLESE.org (an Earth 
Science portal based at NCAR) to find more or contact me at the email below.

To respond to Fred Singer's interview would take much of my afternoon I 
fear.  Suffice it to say, that over the past 25 years, climate models 
have come much closer to providing detailed estimates of feedbacks and 
of regional features.  It's well known that one major uncertainty in 
climate models are clouds and their interaction with radiation and 
aerosols.  Nevertheless, confidence in climate models to provide useful 
projections of future climate has improved due to their demonstrated 
performance on a range of space and time scales.  Climate models do not 
just predict future climate.  NCAR's Community Climate System Model 3 
accurately reproduces the climate of the past century.  Models that  
accurately reproduce past climate give us confidence in their ability to 
do the same for the future, despite the remaining uncertainties in our 
very complex climate system.

Also of interest:  This past weekend news broke of  a new Antarctic ice 
core from Vostok dating back in time nearly three-quarters of a million 
years.  The data collected shows that CO2 levels are the highest they've 
been in 650,000 years (formerly, we had records of atmospheric 
concentrations dating back 440,000 years.)  You can Google/News "Vostok 
Ice Core" to read more about it. 

Also, in regard to David's comment regarding volcanic eruptions, he is 
correct in stating that our climate cools for a period following major 
eruptions -- the degree of cooling being dependent on the size of the 
eruption.  Prior to the 1970s, the warming that occurred on Earth was 
well within the range of natural variability, including cooling 
following El Chi After this period, however, we cannot account for the 
degree of warming without adding in the anthropogenic forcing.  Without 
the anthropogenic forcing, models show that Earth's climate would 
actually be cooling.  When we add in the anthropogenic forcings, then 
the models clearly show the Earth's increasing temperatures.  And don't 
forget that the increase in global temperature is a mean.  While much of 
the world is warming modestly, the arctic circle is experiencing a  
drastic increases in temperature. (See a terrific 140 page report in PDF 
on impacts of a warming arctic at the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: 
http://www.acia.uaf.edu/).

Disturbing climate news also came from  "commitment model runs" for the 
IPCC third assessment report due out in 2007.  In a commitment run,  
climate models run in a zero future emissions scenario (meaning we stop 
driving, heating our homes, etc. etc. etc. -- truly zero emissions). The 
climate models still clearly show that we will continue to warm for a 
period and the oceans will continue to rise significantly due to our 
former emissions  (and that's if we stop ALL emissions now). 

Suffice it to say, there is no doubt Earth is warming (not even up for 
debate anymore) and there is no doubt humans have become part of the 
climate system.  We are changing the composition of the atmosphere.  We 
are gambling with the climate system of future generations, namely our 
children and grandchildren.  We live with uncertainty everyday.  With a 
system as complex as the climate system, we will probably never have all 
the answers.  Nevertheless, over 10,000 policy makers are in Montreal 
right now for the annual United Nations conclave on global warming 
(COP-11).  Its true that the Kyoto Protocol will hardly make a dent in 
GHG emissions, but at least it is a start. 

We should all take heed of the IPCC's 2007 report.  It is comprised of 
the leading climate scientists from around the world.
(There 2001 report is available online), including scientists from 
Saudia Arabia and other oil producing nations.  The reports are 
conservative in that they include what the thousands of scientists agree 
on. The process is extremely open and the reports are a consensus of 
what is agreed upon.

Another "must read" that will be published next years comes from Susan 
Moser, PhD (NCAR) and Lisa Dilling, PhD (CU Boulder) regarding 
communicating climate change (read their Dec. 2004 article in 
Environment magazine entitled, "Making Climate Hot -- Communicating the 
Urgency and Challenge of Global Climate Change" if you'd like a 
precursor of the book.)
I'll keep you posted on this last recommendation once I know their 
book's title and its release date.

If anyone would like recommendations on reports etc. where they can 
learn more about the issue of climate change, feel free to contact me at 
[log in to unmask]

Teri Eastburn
NCAR Educational Designer




Jennifer Gorenstein wrote:

> ISEN-ASTC-L is a service of the Association of Science-Technology Centers
> Incorporated, a worldwide network of science museums and related 
> institutions.
> ***************************************************************************** 
>
>
> Regarding the recent emails sent about global warming - does anyone 
> know or have information about a module or curriculum written on the 
> topic?  We organize an annual K-12 professional development conference 
> each summer and would like to partner to offer a workshop focusing on 
> global warming.
>
> For more information visit http://k12summerinstitute.mdanderson.org/
>
> Thanks in advance, Jennifer
>
>


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