ISEN-ASTC-L is a service of the Association of Science-Technology Centers
Incorporated, a worldwide network of science museums and related institutions.
*****************************************************************************
Good Morning Jenny,
I would like to build on David's thoughts and comments. I have yet to see an "formulaic/quickandeasy" model for predicting attendance. I do know that it would better to under-predict and then be surprised with a higher attendance (they will call you a hero)......rather than, over-predict and be castigated for the lower attendance (by the way, your board, donors, and the local media will stone you). Also, if you want to have school groups in your attendance mix, do you have convenient school bus drop-off and pick-up, with near-by parking for the school bus?
My own un-scientific observation (several internal, never published studies....some done with average daily traffic counts of vehicular traffic maps available from state highway agencies) is that, if your much relatively smaller, new facility is located right-next-door to a high-traffic, larger, well established tourist attraction,.....you may be able to "capture" about 10% (no more than) of their annual attendance. So, if the wharf's attendance fluctuates between 500K to 1M per annum, one could expect that 10% of the wharf's attendance could yield between 50K to 100K for your science center. Oh, yeah......plan on spending the equivalent of about 10% of your 1st year's operational budget on advertising and promotional materials, and remember to say your prayers, be nice to old people and stray animals.
Best Wishes for Success!!!
Wesley
P.S. In 1967 my ol' Drill Sargent (SFC Harris, I'll never forget him) always told me to aim low. I am sure he wasn't advising me about predicting museum attendance,.....but I am confident that his advice still holds water, if you know what I mean.
Wesley S. Creel
Administrator of Programs
Pink Palace Family of Museums
3050 Central Avenue
Memphis, TN 38111-3399
www.memphismuseums.org
(901) 320-6370 Direct
(901) 320-6391 FAX
>>> [log in to unmask] 09/28/04 10:05PM >>>
ISEN-ASTC-L is a service of the Association of Science-Technology Centers
Incorporated, a worldwide network of science museums and related institutions.
*****************************************************************************
The simple answer is ,do you have a crystal ball?,
You are asking the single hardest question in the industry,
other than what do people learn when they come to the museum.
You obviously are in a high traffic area with a good tourist audience,
but will the visitors come through the doors and pay your admission
fee?
If there are lots of other free offerings in the area, this will be a
negative both for cost and for available time for families.
What are you planning on charging and how will visitors perceive
the relative value of the experience to other things available to them?
is parking easily available, and if so is it free, if not how much does
it add to the cost of a visit to your museum...?
Can potential visitors easily know what they will get to do at your
site and is it exciting to them? If they have to guess they won't come.
How much advertising are you planning on doing to the local
community and to the tourist audience?
All of these factors will influence your attendance... and once again,
I would recommend investing in a crystal ball...
David
David Taylor
AHHA Museum Services
Now I Understand
Seattle, WA 98177
(206) 363-8126
e-mail: [log in to unmask]
http://www.AHHA-MuseumServices.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> From: Jenny Theodorou <[log in to unmask]>
> Reply-To: Informal Science Education Network <[log in to unmask]>
> Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 16:16:13 -0700
> Subject: Attendance projections
> We are opening a small (7,000 total sq ft, 3,650 exhibit space) Marine Science
> Center in Santa Barbara, CA. I am trying to project our annual attendance and
> am having difficulties. Can anyone suggest a method/ formula? I am anxiously
> awaiting the 2003 ASTC survey data and will order the 2002 survey data as
> well.
>
> Our facility will open next year and be situated in Santa Barbara on a high
> traffic area wharf. The Wharf sees between 500,000 to 1 million visitors and
> Santa Barbara has over 400,000 residents. We are about 1 ½ hours from LA so
> the population pool is enormous. Our facility will only have approximately
> 3500 of exhibit space. Our old facility was about 2000 sq ft and served
> ~70,000 visitors. The new improved and much more interactive facility will be
> 3600 sq feet.
>
> Can anyone point me in a direction?
> Jenny Theodorou
> Sea Center Director
> Santa Barbara Museum of Natural History
***********************************************************************
More information about the Informal Science Education Network and the
Association of Science-Technology Centers may be found at http://www.astc.org.
To remove your e-mail address from the ISEN-ASTC-L list, send the
message SIGNOFF ISEN-ASTC-L in the BODY of a message to
[log in to unmask]
***********************************************************************
More information about the Informal Science Education Network and the
Association of Science-Technology Centers may be found at http://www.astc.org.
To remove your e-mail address from the ISEN-ASTC-L list, send the
message SIGNOFF ISEN-ASTC-L in the BODY of a message to
[log in to unmask]
|
