As a follow-up to my previous post:  Many people in the US are concerned
about the possibility of terrorists using smallpox as a biological weapon
against Americans (similar to how early European-Americans used it as a
biological weapon against Native Americans).

The US government is paying for the production of 300 million doses of
smallpox vaccine, enough to vaccinate every person in the country, with
plenty left over.  But there currently are no plans for massive immunization
campaigns of all US citizens, even though pretty much no one has protection
any more, since they stopped giving routine smallpox vaccinations in the
late 1970s/early 1980s, and the immunizations do not confer life-time
immunity.

So why no plans for universal vaccinations?  Because it is estimated that
about 400 people would die, from the vaccinations themselves, if all 220
million people in the US were vaccinated at one time.  And that would be a
public relations disaster . . . Or at least, it would be until such time as
people actually start dying from smallpox.

Currently the plan is that if a person is diagnosed with smallpox, only
their *contacts* (family members, co-workers or school classmates,
neighbors, etc.) would be vaccinated -- the CDC predicts that about 2,000
people would receive the vaccination for each identified case.

If you don't want anyone to die of complications from smallpox vaccine, then
you don't vaccinate anyone.  If you don't want anyone to die of smallpox
itself, then you vaccinate everyone.  The current CDC plan is to try to
strike a balance.  I think their approach is reasoned and logical, and
epidemiologically sound.  But I predict massive panic in the streets if
people start being diagnosed with smallpox and most other people can't get
vaccinated because they are not in the circle of 'contacts' as defined by
the CDC.

Just something more to think about.  There are no 100% risk-free choices --
about anything in life.

Kathy Dettwyler



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