Thanks for that chart and the underlying data.  Very interesting.  I wonder if the forecasts predicted these events.

What is even more interesting than the trend line is the range from Jan 18 to Feb 23 in this short sample.  

That is a 36-day spread and amounts to over a month, or 10% of a year.  It is also a large percentage  of the spring build-up and spring management season, assuming we use first bloom as the start of spring rather than the official start at the equinox. .

While most focus on the trend lines, and they are obvious and, for some purposes, meaningful, I am always more interested in the scatter.  Each data point has a story.

Here in Central Alberta, we see at least a month range in run-off dates, and a similar, although less wide, range in bloom.  

We also have a warming trend recorded since at least 1900, when there were lakes around here that had dried up by the fifties and sixties.  

Our growing season has increased, although our first killer frost in recent memory has varied from August 20 to early October, an even wider range than run-off.  I don't know if the late bloom and early frost dates in any particular year are related. 

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